Afghanistan. “Between the Lion and the Man with the Stick”
Afghanistan. “Between the Lion and the Man with the Stick”
As the next poppy season approaches, the Taliban possibly find themselves in the unenviable situation of tackling both poppy farmers and drugs traders at the same time.
Poppy cultivation in Afghanistan in 2024 will be one of the lowest levels on record. In parallel, there is evidence that the Taliban is applying increasing pressure to the opium trade, including upping the frequency and volume of drug seizures. This is leading to a rise in smuggling costs and the antipathy of drug traders as they, like the farmers, begin to feel the impact of the drugs ban.
As the next poppy planting season approaches, the Taliban risks opening too many fronts in its counternarcotics effort. For example, were the Taliban to continue to confront drug traders, particularly targeting their allies in the south, as well as mount a more robust attempt to eliminate widespread poppy cultivation in Badakhshan in 2025, it could lead to the regime losing support and ultimately destabilise Taliban rule. (Davin Mansfield in Alcis, UK, 01.10.2024)